Crowdsourcing the presidential election.

Trying to predict the outcome of an election is not new. Doing so in real-time, based upon current conversations and search information from qualitative data vs. traditional polling, especially months and weeks before the election is. The question is, does it risk the ability to sway the population as everyone chases popular opinion? The larger the crowd, the more people show up for it. Sadly, it's a social norm to follow the herd - think about it. Great for brands, not good for elections.

In this weekends NYTimes article, Google's Crystal Ball, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz analyzes Google search data to see what folks are searching for by state, as it relates to each candidate. Comparing this to numbers from the last election, especially with a focus on the swing states, may show the accuracy of how search data could predict which way people are leaning based upon things such as sentiment analysis. Simply fascinating.

The Daily introduced a real-time, agree/disagree 'dial' to poll Democrats and Republican's in real time, and it was fantastic to participate in and to watch in last week's debate. If you did not try it in the last debate and you own an iPad, Android or Kindle Tablet, download The Daily and try it tonight. I found it absolutely fascinating to watch people's reactions to the arguments in real-time. I was especially fascinated by the fact that the Republican audience was completely unified in their position, while the Democrats were often not as unified around the same issue - a weakness for Obama and the Democratic party, but solid proof that The Democrats are not as polarized, easier to work with and more open to listen to the issues. It was even more scary to watch how folks are swayed by popular opinion in real-time vs. making their own decisions based upon the facts. We know and accept that this is how it works, but usually after much debate, research and discussion followed up by the usual sensationalized coverage by the media - not instantaneously by following your fellow man. An eye opener for sure.

While many of us may view these tools as toys to keep us entertained before, during and after a debate, unlike the debate itself, this may be how elections are won and lost in the future.

 

Posted via email from Jared Hendler

Social TV, the Second Screen and the Opportunity for PR.

62% of consumers use social media while watching TV on a weekly basis. This fact is stunning and an increase of 18% over last year, according to the results from the annual Ericsson ConsumerLab study. While folks may not all be chatting about the content on their big screen, 25% of the 65% are - and that's still a big and growing %.  For a summary of the study, go here.

How many of us have texted our friends while watching a broadcast show, a live presidential speech or a sporting event? What about the chatter around those Super Bowl commercials? With Social TV, the opportunities to connect with others outside of our direct social networks around things we love are endless. The ability for our clients to do the same, in real-time, is there. I could even see the re-imagining of the commercial as a real-time call to action to engage. Simply connecting with a larger audience around the breaks within major events such as the Super Bowl or The Oscars brings endless opportunities, especially if curated around carefully promoted search terms and hashtags.

And more proof-points are coming our way. The Council for Research Excellence (CRE) will be conducting a new study to determine the impact of social media activity on television viewing. Keller Fay Group, Nielsen, Nielsen Life360, NM Incite, and Bluefin Labs have all agreed to participate in conducting the study. It will consist of three different components: A quantitative survey conducted by consulting firm Keller Fay Group of up to 1,600 participants recruited by Nielsen, all checking in multiple times per day over the course of a week via a mobile app; a social media analytics project from NM Incite, with the social TV analytics provided by Bluefin Labs; and ethnographies provided by Nielsen Life360, where 200 panelists will record media usage for seven days using their own smartphones. Comprehensive it is!

And there is plenty to research as Second Screen Social TV offerings are well underway. Here are a few that I have been tracking:

Yahoo was the first and most vocal with their easy-to-use IntoNow tablet app. While watching TV, the app recognizes the content through sound recognition and conveniently pulls up all the social streams around that particular piece of content all in real time.

YouToo.com (a social TV company) enables folks to record Video messages that then have the chance to appear in conjunction with the broadcast show. One example is Ricki Lake's new daytime talk show which will be accompanied by its very own social network, hosted by YouToo to allow users to record videos in response to on-air topics, which if approved by producers, could show up on later broadcasts.

UK-based social TV company Zeebox will be launching in the US soon and is expected to announce a deal with Comcast along with Time Warner Cable. It will provide both cable operators access to its social TV technology for use within their existing mobile apps, as well as launch its own app in the market. Zeebox's mobile app allows TV viewers to see what their friends are watching, follow social conversations and interact with others around shows, access additional information on a program, and has an m-commerce capability that allows users to buy things they see on TV.

Mass Relevance has teamed up with Turner Sports to launch The 13th Man, a new social/second-screen tool tied to the 2012 Ryder Cup. Available on the tournament's website, the social tool will allow users to access fan conversations and reactions in real-time during the Cup over the next five days.

VH1's Love & Hip Hop:Atlanta was the most social TV show (excluding sports) of the summer, according to data from Trendrr.TV. On average, the show generated more than double the social interactions per episode vs. the second-most social summer series. Females were responsible for 67% of all social interactions related to the show. Behind Love & Hip Hop Atlanta, the other top shows/genres for SocialTV are:

• The Bad Girls Club (Oxygen)
• Keeping Up with the Kardashians (E!).
  
• Sports programming dominated social TV as the end of the NBA Playoffs on TNT and ESPN generated 4.4 million social media comments and interactions; ESPN's coverage of Euro 2012 brought in 25 million social interactions; and NBC's Olympic coverage generated 28 million social interactions.
• The top three dramas were Pretty Little Liars (ABC Family), Teen Wolf (MTV), and True Blood (HBO).
• Excluding Olympic and other sports-related networks, BET, MTV, Nickelodeon, VH1, and ABC Family were the most social cable networks this summer.
• Discovery's Shark Week brought in more than 4.3 million social interactions during that one week in August.

For those entertainment companies that have yet to get into the action, mPortal has released a new set of social TV APIs that are designed to help content and service providers build second-screen apps for connected devices. The APIs allow providers to develop an interactive experience that connects audiences with friends across selected social networks while giving insight into individuals' unique viewing preferences.

Given the expanding opportunities to engage with the content that we crave, the Public Relations industry is in a great position to help brands and organizations connect in real time through a medium that used to be a one-way, static affair. Truthfully I don't see it going any other way. As with traditional social media, if you are not involved in the conversation, it moves on without you and the entertainment industry cannot afford to let that happen.

And then there is something else to consider - the fact that mobile is engaging us in ways that may exceed the immersive experience of TV and the fact that mobile devices are what we use when we engage in Social TV. I really loved this post by Matt Cohler from Benchmark Capital: Mobile Will Grab TV Advertising’s Crown.

For those of you who are joining us for Social Media Week this week in Los Angeles, the entertainment capitol of the world, I'd love to know how you plan on using the technologies at your disposal to connect with an audience that is clearly passionate about the content you are producing.

Posted via email from Jared Hendler

Apps, the future of a new TV experience, and the death of the old.

What if apps did for TV's and the entire viewing experience what apps did for phones?

It was not so long ago that the idea of loading an app on a phone was not possible. The first iPhone did not allow this and it took some time before the API and developer kit was opened up. Today, this is commonplace...and the same is now happening to our connected TV's.

This is significant, because it brings us closer to an à la carte, on demand, one on one engaged world...even in TV land.

New research from Parks Associates shows US smart (connected) TV owners who watch online video increased by over 30% in six months. 75% of US smart TV owners who connect their TV's to the web watch on-demand online movies monthly - up from 57% in 2011. 71% watch online TV shows monthly, up from 51% in 2011. From a daily perspective, 30% watch movies and 32% watch TV shows. Parks Associates projects that the number of internet-connected TVs shipped will jump from less than 1% in 2008 to over 45% in 2012, and that's a big jump in a relatively short amount of time folks.

Add all of the X-Boxes, Rokus, Google Nexus Q's and Apple TV's and you suddenly have a television viewing revolution as people start to download the apps of the networks or content partners they love as opposed to prescribing to hundreds of channels pre-packaged by the cable operators they don't.

For now, there is just one problem, content creators and the networks cannot afford to spite the hand that feeds them (cable and satellite companies) by selling directly. However there is no doubt that the pendulum will swing in that direction once a majority of folks start to connect to their programming in this way, and online advertising has the potential to exceed traditional and there is evidence of that. ComScore's monthly Video Metrix report shows more than 11 billion online video ads were viewed in June, up from over 10 billion in May. In addition, each of the top five online video advertising properties delivered more than 1 billion video ads in June. Google properties came in first (1.41 billion ads delivered), BrightRoll (1.39 billion ads), Hulu (1.33 billion), Adap.tv (1.15 billion), and TubeMogul (1.04) billion. ComScore finds that video ads reached 53% of the total US population an average of 68 times during the month. 

Another report argues that real-time buying of video ads may be a superior method for buying digital video, something cable cannot do to the same degree based upon habits and real-time detailed demographics information (

Forrester on behalf of TubeMogul)

 

. "Real-time buying puts marketers in the driver's seat, not only in terms of seeing exactly where an ad is running and for what price, but by reducing media waste by allowing for real-time adjustment based on impact and budget".

As for live TV, operators such as Aereo are offering connectivity via remote antenna rental. I'm also sure that digital antennas will start to pop up within TV's and digital boxes. If you have not tried a digital antenna yourself, the free signal that the major networks broadcast delivers a better picture than you get via most cable or satellite companies. Give it it try!

In addition to cheaper bills and better control, apps will give us innovation that cable has never been able to deliver in an efficient manner; such as the ability to purchase directly from in-program product placement or from advertising, which, by the way, will need to become much more adaptive in format to the new medium. Meaning the traditional :30 and :60 will change or disappeared entirely. One example of this is how TiVo has partnered with PayPal to develop interactive TV ads that would allow viewers to make purchases with their remotes while watching TV.

There is not doubt that this future is upon us. Watch for my next post on the opportunity of PR with social TV and the second screen.

Posted via email from Jared Hendler

The promise of ROI and the monetization of Social Commerce is here.

Facebook is banking on it. Social engagement that drives sharing and personal recommendations to directly drive sales. While there are app templates for in-network e-commerce, such as Tab Juice, social commerce refers to the direct and measurable connection between social influences via a network like Facebook and its direct connection to sales either on or offline.

Forrester's report proves how fan's of a brand online are much more powerful when influencing consideration and purchase.

Facebook is also testing a Want button plugin. While the 'Like' button measures a fan who most likely owns a brand in some way, 'Want' clearly defines the desire to own - clearly a powerful data-set to own.

...and Facebook is not the only one. Foursquare enables us to 'check into' locations that offer us deals while Pinterest allows is to curate what we are most passionate about. I can see a time where our Pinterest pins actually lead to a link to purchase, and a time when we all get a piece of the sale if the referral came from our post or link...the ultimate affiliate sales model all driven by social commerce.

The Fancy is already starting to do this. "Each time a user clicks to share an item they’ve “fancy’d,” they receive a URL with a unique referral code. If someone makes a purchase using that link, they’ll receive 2% of the sale price 30 days after that item has shipped". See Mashable's post.

Three other noteworthy entrants are:

Karma enabling you to send gifts right from your phone.

Wrapp an offer/gifting offering that allows you to gift and add onto the value of select coupons and offers.

Gumroad allows you to sell directly to your friends and followers via a simple link vs. having to host your own e-commerce solution.

Mashable posted a solid article on the 4 startups it felt were revolutionizing social commerce last month.  Of these, my favorite is LocalResponse as it uses mobile technology to help retailers engage with customers in-store! Advertising Age sees Facebook as a $540BB hub built around referrals and selling.

Altimeter is also hosting a Social Commerce Conference in Palo Alto this year on October 6th & 7th.

Social Commerce Today is a great destination site with all sorts of information on innovations within the space brought to you by European Interactive Agency Syzygy

IBM is also offering IT and enterprise social e-commerce platforms integration.

In all my years of posting I have never had so much fodder to talk about. For those wondering how social media will monetize itself (and no, it will not be ads) this is it and it's happening fast.

Posted via email from Jared Hendler

Gift some Karma via Facebook...

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Looking for some quick research or opinions on the cheap?

Posted via email from Jared Hendler

Do you have an image strategy?

Posted via email from Jared Hendler

Is Social Advertising The Future of Madison Avenue?

Even as digital advertising is up (it's no secret of the declining engagement within traditional), it is clear that consumers are not interested in repeating the same invasive advertising experience at a time when recommendations from family, friends and professional peers are more trusted sources of information. There is a reason that the banner ad is also on the decline.

And then there is Facebook, protecting the interests of community by eliminating ads as noise with a preference towards advertising as relevant content. Advertising as being a part of the conversation. Advertising to be shaped by the consumer, in real time, if relevant, if it brings value and connects in a way that friends want to share.

Nielsen analyzed results from 79 ad campaigns on Facebook over a period of six months to determine the effectiveness of social advertising. They found that social advertising, on average, generates a 55% greater lift in ad recall than non-social ads. In a separate study conducted in 2011 they found that 76% of U.S. web consumers said they most trusted recommendations from personal acquaintances.

And so the data shows that yes, the future of digital advertising is most definitely going to be social, but I don't think that Madison Avenue will be able to effectively service it for a few simple reasons:

1. Creative Control: Mad Ave is still about creative control. It is the discipline you need to create magnificent commercials but not the skills required for social advertising.

2. Silo'd Traditional Media Buying: The traditional media buyer gets in - then gets out. They do not participate in the conversation, nor do they help shape the story or adapt the buy based upon the conversation. The media buyer of the future will follow the conversation, create engagement and participate in the flow of the story.

All of these things are what we in PR have been doing for years. Authentic engagement combined with earned media expertise that allows us to turn on a dime and evolve the story to bring relevance to the conversation and make you, our clients, matter more.

 

Posted via email from Jared Hendler

Social Demographics: Who's Is Using Today's Biggest Social Networks [INFOGRAPHIC] http://ping.fm/5nIhD

Will all software eventually run in the cloud?

Imagine having remote access, via a tablet or low-end desktop, to the most powerful desktop setup with automated software and security updates constantly being installed for you. Imagine having never to pay hundreds of dollars for the latest software, but rather being able subscribe to most of what you need for less than $10 per month, including an internet connection faster than most businesses. Think of it like paying for cable (when cable was affordable).  For a set low price you get the basics. A base OS, with the software basics such as Microsoft Word, Powerpoint, Excel etc all pre-installed. Then imagine being able to add any other application that you needed for a mere few dollars a month. That is what OnLive Desktop has started to deliver upon.

Right now, OnLive runs Windows 7, which is surprisingly easy to use. I cannot imagine how much better the experience will be once Windows 8 launches.

The most amazing thing about it is the ability for you to truly run a full computing experience in the cloud, available from anywhere; tablet, smart-phone or a cheap, low-end netbook that would normally never be able to open large Powerpoint files or even think about running photo or video editing software.

It takes a mind-shift.  One that is similar to the idea of 'renting access' to music via a subscription service similar to Spotify. Overall, the cost to the user drops considerably - while the demand for piracy is eliminated.

Once you try it, it truly is a mind-blowing experience. One that cannot help us question what the future of software will really be. If this is just the beginning, the current business model for creating and selling software could change dramatically. It could unseat today's software giants and completely eliminate the advantage of the hardware and software coupling that Apple holds so precious today. Perhaps that is why Apple has been so focused on the cloud lately.

The service, available to Android and Apple iOS users, brings a copy of the Windows 7 desktop interface to a user's tablet through the cloud. A free version brings with it 2GB of storage and access to most Windows applications including Microsoft Word, Excel and PowerPoint. A premium version for $4.99 per month also offers access to other cloud-based storage services, as well as a fast web browser. Versions for the PC, Mac and TV are coming soon.

Posted via email from Jared Hendler

Google Wants to Send Photographers Inside Your Business. I advise you invite them in. http://j.mp/z4XrWR

Designing an Ecommerce Site to Maximize Sales. http://j.mp/yjrg87